Sample Promotion Response Project Scenario
Background:
The context or setting for this scenario is the classic pharmaceutical marketplace. Prescription Rx
writing volume (aka sales) for our client’s brand and the competitors’ is supplied by a 3rd party vendor
on a monthly basis. The market is defined by cholesterol reduction products.
Assume though the following definition or description of this market. Our Client has a product, brand Z,
which has been in the market place for 5 years. Market is dominated by Brand A which has 1/3 of the
market’s share based on Total Prescription volume. Brand A’s market share has not really changed
much in the most recent 3 years. It had a notable decline though prior to that. Another 1/3 of the
market is represented by Generics. The generics as a group have increased share but very gradually
over the last 3 years. The remaining 1/3 of the market is comprised of our client’s product, Brand Z, and
two others, Brands X Y, all three with approximately the same current share. So all 3 equal about 11.1%
market share each for the most recent year. Brand X was introduced about 3 years ago, Brand Y was
launched about the same time our Brand was launched. Both our Brand Z and Brand Y both lost some
market share to Brand X, but this share loss trend seems to have levelled off. (See very simplistic Market
Share trends attached in Excel)
Brand A is being promoted by a sales force of 250 Reps, while Brands Z, X Y are all promoted by
separate sales forces of 100 Reps. We have 3 years of Rx data history and call history for our client’s
Sales Reps since launch. The call history for our client’s product includes the practitioners who have
been called on, their specialty, degree type (MD, DO, NP, PA, or ‘other’), address, sex, age, whether any
samples were dropped during the calls and the volume of sample dropped off, and if there was an in-
office lunch (not expensive) included. We also know if the practitioners are part of a larger group
practice which represents an “owner” entity. For our competitors (not including Generics) we have
National level $ data by month showing projected/estimated spending on Sales Reps/Call Activity,
Journal Advertising $ and Promotional Speaker Program $. There is no detail on competitors’
promotional spending at the individual HCP level.
There are several metropolitan areas where Brand A Reps exist and our Reps do not. There are a few
metropolitan areas where Brand X Y Reps exist and ours do not and a couple metropolitan areas
where our Reps exist and Brand X and Y Reps do not.
The main prescribers in this cholesterol reducer market are a mix of Cardiologists and Primary Care
doctors (MDs DOs) and Nurse Practitioners/Physician Assistants, along with some other miscellaneous
specialties which are not significant. For this scenario, assume Hospitals play little-to-no role in the
market share trends.
We just took over Targeting Call Planning for this client. Up to this point really the Targets being
called on and the frequency on each was based solely on the practitioner’s Total Market TRx volume.
There are 200 practitioner Targets on each of our 100 Representatives’ Target Called On List based on
this Targeting Model which has been used for the last 2 years.
We know from quick examination of the practitioner Rx volume and market share trends that some of
the practitioners our client’s representatives have been calling on have improving share trends for brand
Z, others have flat trends, while others have declining trends. Also, there are some metropolitan areas
or regions where Brand Z’s market share trends are better than others.
Our new client is anxious to get our overall assessment of:
I. What has been working, what has not been working?
II. Why are share trends for some practitioners who our client’s representatives have been
calling on positive and others not?
III. How might we change which practitioners we Target (reach) and adjust or fine tune the
Frequency we call on them to increase brnd Z’s overall share trends, while maintaining
100 Reps?
Main Analytical Issues
1. What promotional efforts (e.g. calls), what customer characteristics (Market volume, brand shares,
degree/specialty) and what environmental factors (e.g., practice setting and/or Mgd Care) cause
increases and decreases in brand Z’sales?
2. What might be the 2 or 3 hypotheses that we should assess related to what is causing the share
trends?
The main objectives of the candidate’s presentation should be:
A. Organize the 10-12 minute presentation simply and clearly.
B. There is no secret or hidden answer. The main objective is for us to hear and see how you think
and communicate.
C. Outline first a few basic approaches to addressing issues 1 2 and the client’s questions I-III
above.
D. You can ask a few questions as these will help us with item B.
E. Next outline several more powerful and more complex statistical approaches or techniques to
address these issues. You can assume someone with skills a bit above yours will assist.
F. Use some visualization techniques, but no need to go overboard. You may want to show
visualization results (mocked up) to demonstrate how statistical analyses above might look.